Essays
Longer-form arguments about latent reasoning.
Some made a datable bet early enough that it can now be scored. Others argue about what is happening now, and will be scored later.
Scored
| Essay | Date | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
|
Remind Me Again Why Large Language Models
Can’t Think Peter Cotton · original |
Apr 2023 | Argued the minority side against a polled 80% consensus that language models cannot think, and the consensus moved. Its two-map model of speech as a doubly noisy observation of internal structure has worn better than the verdict it was defending. |
Not yet scorable
| Essay | Date | What it argues |
|---|---|---|
| Remind Me Again Why Large Language Models Won’t Kill Us All | Sep 2026 | The reassurances about AI risk are mostly claims about what has not happened yet, aimed at a lone lab when the economics produces a network. Follows the rounding step from between reasoning steps to between agents, and argues that the instruments we would use to check are saturating. |